Mandeville, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS64 KLIX 042314 AAA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
614 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily showers
  and thunderstorms expected through the next several days.
  Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few
  storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds
  and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period
  with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest
  timeframe looks to be latter half of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A broad weakening upper level ridge remains spread across the
southern U.S. today, while surface ridging associated with the
western Atlantic/Bermuda high extends across the Gulf. This pattern
will keep the area hot and humid, but not completely capped off from
convection today. The 12Z KLIX sounding showed PW near 1.9 inches,
weak deep-layer flow/shear, and only modest mixed-layer instability
at that time. However, temperatures have warmed into the lower/mid
90s with surface heating now helping reduce inhibition, especially
near boundaries. Latest radar imagery supports this trend early this
afternoon showing scattered thunderstorms ongoing near portions of
the Louisiana coastline, mainly west of the mouth of the
Mississippi. CWA convection inland remains limited so far, though a
progressively developing cumulus field south of I-10 suggests
gradual boundary layer destabilization is underway. Storms that do
develop will be poorly organized, but slow/erratic storm motions,
frequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty winds will be
the main concerns. Localized nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out
in urban or poor drainage spots, but the heavy rain threat should
remain brief and isolated.

Heat remains a concern for the holiday weekend, especially where
convection is delayed or absent. Highs should reach the lower to mid
90s inland with peak heat index values generally around 100 to 107
degrees. These values appear to remain just below local heat
advisory criteria, but heat stress will still be an issue for
outdoor activities.

On Sunday, an upper trough will begin digging into the southeastern
U.S., breaking down the eastern side of the ridge and the portion
over the local area. This should support higher rain chances Sunday
into Tuesday, with the same general summertime rhythm of nocturnal
to morning convection near the coast and coastal waters, then inland
convection during peak heating. Severe weather potential remains low
given weak shear, but isolated gusty winds and frequent lightning
will remain possible with the stronger storms.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper trough over the Southeastern US should lift northeast by
Wednesday, allowing ridging from the west to expand back eastward
across the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. At the
surface, weak ridging should remain the dominant feature across the
Gulf region. This favors a trend toward somewhat lower rain chances
compared to the Sunday through Tuesday period, but not a dry
forecast. Sufficient Gulf moisture and daytime heating should still
support isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, especially along sea breeze and differential heating
boundaries.

With heights rising again, heat will likely become the more
persistent hazard concern late week. Highs should remain in the
lower to mid 90s with humid conditions keeping afternoon heat
indices in the 100 to 107 degree range, locally near advisory levels
depending on cloud cover and storm timing. Confidence in widespread
advisory criteria exceedance is not high enough at this range, but
heat impacts will remain possible for outdoor work and recreation.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Convection this evening has decreased, however, MCB would have the
best odds prior to sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected up
until tomorrow midday or so when more widespread convection is
anticipated. MVFR or lower VIS/CIGs will be expected in and around
the heaviest convection with gusty and more erratic winds. Timing
is still a bit questionable, but generally during peak heating is
the best possible timeframe. Otherwise, outside of convection
winds should remain mostly light and generally southerly. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Surface ridging over the Gulf will maintain a weak pressure
gradient, supporting a typical summertime marine pattern. Therefore,
expect generally less than 10 kt winds and seas/waves 2 feet or
less to continue across the coastal waters.

Marine convection remains the primary concern. Thunderstorms will be
favored mainly overnight through mid morning over the waters, with
additional activity possible near coastal boundaries during the
afternoon. Any storms could produce frequent lightning, locally
higher winds, and brief hazardous seas. The waterspout environment
appears favorable today, especially where showers or developing
storms interact with weak boundaries in the low-shear environment.


&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME